Climate Change: future impacts and problems.
Talk by Dr Malcolm Hart PhD DSc FGS CGeol CSci.
With the global atmosphere now 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, the question must be what happens next? There are three immediate issues to consider:
· Over-saturated atmosphere caused by higher temperatures;
· Marine heatwaves; and
· Increased sea level rise.
The higher moisture levels in the atmosphere means that heavy rainfall events (e.g., Boscastle, Coverack, Ottery St Mary, etc.) become more frequent. These coupled with periods of dryness, leads to landslide instability – especially on the coast (e.g., Ladram Bay, Budleigh Salterton, Branscombe, Seaton Hole, Lyme Regis, Charmouth, etc.).
Marine heatwaves disrupt ecosystems (e.g., the octopus invasion in South-West England) bur can also lead to major rainfall events (and flooding) near to the coast (e.g., Valencia, Spain).
While the long-term sea level rise is much quoted as 1.4 ±.0.2 mm yr-1. This very gradual rise in sea level represents the long-term trend and, for this region, is based on tidal data from Newlyn (Cornwall).
One issue with this long-term average rise in sea level is that, in the last 100 years – and especially the last 50 years – the rise in global temperature (to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels) and the resulting increased rate of glacial melting is probably pushing the rate of sea level rise to an higher figure, although this does not appear to have been quantified in any of the currently available graphical data. This is an issue for coastal management, and known problems such as Pennington Point (Sidmouth) and Torcross (South Hams).
Over, and above, all of this we have the promise/prediction of a mega-El Niño in 2026/2027 and the impact that this may have on global weather patterns.
Malcolm Hart DSc FGS CGeol CSci is Emeritus Professor in Micropalaeontology at the University of Plymouth, having ‘retired’ in 2010. Since 1965, he has been undertaking research on foraminifera and several other groups of microfossils. Best known for his published work on the foraminiferal biostratigraphy of the Cretaceous he has recently been involved in a study of Jurassic coleoid fossils and the statoliths and arm hooks found in many Jurassic sediments. The Cretaceous work involved the site investigation and construction of the Channel Tunnel and Thames Barrier – both of which used foraminiferal biostratigraphy quite extensively.
In the University Plymouth he served as Head of Department of Geological Sciences for 10 years before becoming Pro Vice-Chancellor (Research & Innovation) of the University for 8 years and Associate Dean of Science (Research) for a further 6 years.